Economics

The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 1/9/21 increased to 965,000, a deterioration of 181,000 from the prior week.  That is the highest number of new state claims since 8/22/20.

Since 8/29/20, the new weekly claims have been in the 700Ks or 800Ks.

Keep in mind that before the shutdown of the economy the new claims averaged about 220K per week, so we are now running more than four times the previous norm.

The number of continuing claims for unemployment has been slowly dropping but increased for the week ending 1/2/21.

News report

Article at Wall Street Journal on 1/14/21 reports US Unemployment Claims Rise as Pandemic Weighs on Economy. Article link indicates the consensus is the increasing virus count combined with increasing restrictions on businesses caused the jump in new unemployment claims.

Article says there are other economic indicators suggesting the economy is slowing down again. Stats such as small business optimism, new home sales, existing home sales, household income, and household spending point towards a slowdown.

Following graphs show the devastation from the economic shutdown.

New claims

New claims for unemployment by week since the start of 2020:

…

Large rise new claims for unemployment for week ending 1/9/21.Read More »

The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 12/26/20 declined for a secone weeks in a row. New claims are 787K, a 19K drop for the week.

This two week drop follows two weeks of increases, which totaled 176K.

Since 8/9/20, the new weekly claims have been in the 700Ks or 800Ks.

For contrast, remember that before the government induced shutdown of the economy the new claims averaged about 220K per week so we are still running three or four times the previous norm.

The number of continuing claims for unemployment is continuing to drop. Large part of the drop is people going back to work. Some portion, likely a lot, of the drop in state-level continuing claims has been offset by rising number of people on the federal program.

When a person exhausts the state level coverage, they become eligible for the extended federal benefits, called the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program.

Article at Wall Street Journal on 12/31/20 reports US Unemployment Claims Fell Modestly Last Week.  Article explains the new claims for state programs is a proxy for layoffs. Good observation.

…

Small decline in new claims and continuing claims for unemployment for week ending 12/26/20.Read More »

The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 12/5/20 increased from 716K in prior week to 853K.

Number of new claims has been in the 700Ks or 800Ks since the end of August.

The number of continuing claims for unemployment increased for the week ending 11/28/20, going from 5.53M up to 5.76M.

Just a few graphs this week:

New claims

New claims for unemployment by week since the start of the year:

…

New claims and continuing claims for unemployment increased for week ending 12/5/20.Read More »

The unemployment rate dropped slightly from 6.9% in October 2020 to 6.7% in November.

That is a small change compared to the previous six months.

Check out the extreme swings in the U-3 unemployment rate:

…

Headline unemployment rate barely drops in November 2020.Read More »

The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 11/28/20 declined for two weeks in a row. New claims are 712K, a 75K drop for the week.

In September the new claims were in the 800Ks. Since 10/17/20 the new claims have been under 800K.

For contrast, remember that before the government induced shutdown of the economy the new claims averaged about 220K per week so we are still running more than three times the previous norm.

When a person exhausts the state level coverage, they become eligible for the extended federal benefits, called the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program.

The number of continuing claims for unemployment is continuing to drop. Some portion of the drop is people going back to work. Looks like for the lasts four weeks the drop in state-level continuing claims has been offset by rising number of people in the federal program.

…

Slight decline in new claims and continuing claims for unemployment for week ending 11/28/20.Read More »

One of the frustrations I have experienced as an auditor is the statistical information made visible by the AICPA and publications from others is the economic data lags behind two or three quarters.  Another trade association reports giving trends in the religious communities, but the survey information usually is provided late in the year for the prior calendar year.

Long time ago I came across a comment that CPAs ought to start tracking key economic indicators on their own.

What a great idea!

(Cross-post from my other blog, Nonprofit Update.)

…

Why I talk about economic indicators so often.Read More »

The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 10/10/20 increased, which offset net declines of the preceding five weeks. New claims are 898K, a 53K increase over the revised tally for previous week of 845K.

Since 8/29/20 the new claims have been in the mid- to high 800 thousands. Change in the last six weeks, starting with 9/5/20 are +9K, -27K, +7K, -24K, -4K, +53K.

Keep in mind before the government induced shutdown of the economy new claims averaged about 220K per week so we are still running about four times the previous norm.

The number of continuing claims for unemployment is continuing to drop. I’m not sure why this is. Part is due to people going back to work. Part of it is people dropping off the state-level unemployment rolls after the 13 weeks of coverage.

…

New claims for unemployment rise for week of 10/10/20.Read More »

The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 10/3/20 continues to decline a bit. Since 8/29/20 the new claims have been in the mid- to high 800 thousands. Change in the last five weeks, starting with 9/5/20 are +9K, -27K, +7K, -24K, -9K.

To again put this in context, before the government induced shutdown of the economy new claims averaged about 220K per week.

The number of continuing claims for unemployment is continuing to drop. I’m not sure why this is. Part is due to people going back to work.

…

New claims for unemployment again drop slightly for week of 10/3/20 (corrected from 10/8).Read More »

The unemployment rate dropped from 8.4% in August 2020 to 7.9% in September.

Amongst the extremes we are seeing during the shutdown, that 0.5% drop is the smallest monthly decline since the peak in April.

Check out the extreme swings in the U-3 unemployment rate over the last 7 months:

…

Headline unemployment rate drops another half percent in September 2020.Read More »

The bad news on the economy called for the shutdown just keeps growing but there is a hint of good news in the near future. First the good news. 9/30/20 – CNBC – US economy plunges 31.4% in the second quarter but a big rebound is expected – Commerce Department calculations of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter were revised, which is routine, dropping from an annualized contraction of 31.7% down just a little to 31.4% reduction in GDP. …

Economic bad news keeps rolling in, but hint of good news is on the horizon.Read More »