10/6/20 – Philanthropy Today – Giving Was Up 7.5% in the First Half of 2020, New Report Says.
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One report indicates overall charitable giving is up for the first half of 2020.Read More »
One report indicates overall charitable giving is up for the first half of 2020. Read More »
One of the frustrations I have experienced as an auditor is the statistical information made visible by the AICPA and publications from others is that the economic data mentioned routinely lags behind two or three quarters on the date it is published. Another trade association reports giving trends in the religious communities, but the survey information is provided late in the year for the prior calendar year.
The result is when I’m working on an audit or review several months later, the readily available economic data is from the start of the fiscal year I’m analyzing. Sometimes the data is for the prior fiscal year I’m considering. That doesn’t do me much good.
Long time ago I came across a comment that CPAs ought to start tracking key economic indicators on their own.
What a great idea!
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Why I talk about economic indicators so often. Read More »
Indications are starting to emerge that the answer to the question may actually be no.
Previously mentioned one analysis which found a weak statistical correlation between weaker lockdown requirements and lower infection rate. The study found no correlation between the date that states started releasing the lockdown restrictions and subsequent infection rates.
The rate of infections accelerates rapidly and then hits an inflection point where the rate of infections either plateaus or the rate slows dramatically.
The following study suggests the lockdowns have no correlation to when the infection rates hit that transition point. In fact, the inflection point normally is reached before the lockdowns could have had any impact.
10/4/20 – National Review – Stats Hold a Surprise: Lockdowns May Have Had Little Effect on Covid-19 Spread –
Authors pulled the daily infection rate for 13 states and graphed the data on a logarithmic scale. Seeing infections on a log scale makes it easier to see trends. There are visible transitions in every state from rapid acceleration to a flattened or greatly reduced infection rate.
…Did the lockdowns have any beneficial impact on the rate of new infections?Read More »
Did the lockdowns have any beneficial impact on the rate of new infections? Read More »
Update on the effort by Los Angeles County to shut down worship at GCC. The march in San Francisco took place. Some churches are worshiping in minor league baseball parks.
9/26/20 – The Roys Report – John MacArthur will Face New Hearing in November for Defying Ban on Indoor Services – On 9/24/20 an LA County judge postponed a hearing to consider whether to hold Grace Community Church and John MacArthur in contempt.
A hearing will now be held on 11/13/20. What will happen then? I don’t know.
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More updates on religious expression and restrictions thereof.Read More »
More updates on religious expression and restrictions thereof. Read More »
The unemployment rate dropped from 8.4% in August 2020 to 7.9% in September.
Amongst the extremes we are seeing during the shutdown, that 0.5% drop is the smallest monthly decline since the peak in April.
Check out the extreme swings in the U-3 unemployment rate over the last 7 months:
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Headline unemployment rate drops another half percent in September 2020.Read More »
Headline unemployment rate drops another half percent in September 2020. Read More »
Economic bad news keeps rolling in, but hint of good news is on the horizon.Read More »
Economic bad news keeps rolling in, but hint of good news is on the horizon. Read More »
The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 9/26/20 has been about the same over the last five weeks, in the mid- to high 800 thousands. Last big drop was the week of 8/29/20. To again put this in context, before the government induced shutdown of the economy new claims averaged about 220,000 per week.
Good news is the number of continuing claims for unemployment is continuing to drop, which means that more people are going back to work than loosing their job.
The devastating impact of the economic shutdown continues to be painfully obvious.
New Graphs
Starting this week that way the information is presented for this ongoing analysis will be in graphs.
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It has been a long time since I did an update on the money wasted by major banks in violating sundry laws and regulations. Last update was all the way back in February.
Today’s news about JPMorgan throwing away another billion can got me to thinking about what other biggies have been in the news.
9/29/20 – Wall Street Journal – JPMorgan Paying $920 Million to Resolve Market And Pollution Probes – These fiascoes keep showing me the creative brilliance of crooks.
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More updates on major bank fiascos. Another billion here. Three billion there.Read More »
More updates on major bank fiascos. Another billion here. Three billion there. Read More »
It is sad to personally observe the economic devastation from the shutdown.
We spent a few days in San Diego last week. Stayed at a hotel downtown near the harbor. Saw several things showing the severity of the economic damage.
Air travel
For quite a long time airplanes have not been allowed to leave San Diego International Airport until 6:30. It is funny to hear the first engine rev up a few seconds after 6:30 a.m.
I have noticed on previous vacations that there is a string of airplanes lined up ready to leave right at the stroke at 6:30. The planes take off approximately 1 minute apart.
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Observations from San Diego on economic destruction from shutdown.Read More »
Observations from San Diego on economic destruction from shutdown. Read More »
We have been locked down long enough for the volume of statistics to build up to the point of allowing deeper analysis. As is always the case, the statistics can also be manipulated to give whatever answer you want. Deeper, honest analysis is starting to show surprising results, for example, the lack of correlation between infection rates and lockdown policies.
Surprising results on the low correlation will be mentioned after some game playing is described.
Wall Street Journal – 9/9/20 – The Sturgis Statistical Misfire – For this story remember the old saying
The annual motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota routinely draws huge numbers of people to the town, whose population is only 7,000 people. Attendance at the 10-day event this year was lower than usual with an estimated 460,000 motorcycle enthusiasts hanging around.
Frightening news reports at the time said this would cause massive numbers of Covid infections leading to massive numbers of deaths.
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In news over the last few days, Rev. Dr. John MacArthur said he would start a jail ministry if County officials toss him in the slammer, the Archbishop of San Francisco stands up to de facto shutdown of Masses, and one church concedes to the severe pressures from Santa Clara County.
Pastor John MacArthur open to a jail ministry.
Christian Headlines – 9/17/20 – John MacArthur Says He’ll Start a “Jail Ministry” if Arrested for Worshiping Indoors.
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Growing indications point towards ongoing damage to learning at all educational levels due to the shut down. From kindergartners to college students there will be losses of learning time and knowledge.
Older students will be able to catch up. Motivated students will get through. I fear youngsters in particular and unmotivated students in general will suffer permanent damage from the lockdown.
Consider all the damage described in the following articles is a result of a public policy choice made by a host of state and local officials.
The Dispatch – 9/10/20 – The sad realities of virtual learning. – Looks like kindergartners are disappearing from schools. Enrollment in Los Angeles Unified School District is down 14% from a year ago.
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Destruction in the educational world caused by the lockdown.Read More »
Destruction in the educational world caused by the lockdown. Read More »
The comment that shutting down the economy represents a trade-off of lives versus jobs is an invalid comparison.
The real trade-off from a shutdown is lives versus lives.
People are dying because of the shutdown. The shutdown is killing people.
It is time to open the economy.
I don’t have time to summarize all the articles I have read making this point. Here are just three examples.
The pandemic is killing dementia patients
Washington Post – 9/16/20 – Pandemic isolation has killed thousands of Alzheimer’s patients while families watch from afar – The Washington Post, the Post, studied data from CDC to identify there have been 13,200 excess deaths from Alzheimer’s and dementia since the shutdown started. Excess deaths are the extra deaths over the number that would otherwise be expected because of some particular situation.
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The shutdown is killing people. Some estimates of ‘excess deaths’ from the lockdown.Read More »
The shutdown is killing people. Some estimates of ‘excess deaths’ from the lockdown. Read More »
The number of new claims for unemployment for week ending 9/12/20 dropped a little, with “only” 860,000 people losing their jobs, down from an upwardly revised 893,000 the previous week. For contrast, before the government induced shutdown of the economy new claims averaged about 220,000 per week.
Better news in the data is the number of continuing claims for unemployment dropped about twice as much as the new claims, to 12.6M for the week ending 9/5/20. That is the lowest since the shutdown started.
CNBC report on 9/17/20 says Jobless claims were lower than expected but unemployment growth is still sluggish. The number of new claims was slightly better than the 875,000 which economists expected.
As I continue to sort out for myself what this means, will continue listing the stats I’m tracking.
The number of new claims for unemployment and number drawing unemployment is provided by Department of Labor. I calculated the net change, which I assume represents the number of new jobs, although it could also be that people dropping out of the job market wash into the new jobs number:
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Slight improvement in new unemployment claims for week ending 9/12/20.Read More »
Slight improvement in new unemployment claims for week ending 9/12/20. Read More »
Check out the lengthy list of specific requirements imposed by the County of Los Angeles before a church can worship on campus. Pastor John MacArthur describes the requirements placed on Grace Community Church.
After I go through the requirements ponder how you would summarize these restrictions.
Ponder whether the net effect is to strangle worship.
Then ponder whether the net effect is an intentional strategy.
9/14/20 –HillFaith –Faithful Disobedience: Here’s The Absurdly Detailed California Covid Orders to Prevent Churches From Meeting to Worship Indoors – A video embedded at the link gives the first four minutes of Dr. MacArthur’s sermon on 9/13/20. He received a rousing round of applause at the beginning.
He mentioned a few of the requirements placed on the church in order to hold any worship services. The following comments aren’t exact quotes, but are close:
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